Political polling essays

Political polling essays The web site I chose to critique explains political polling and the statistical process behind the polling numbers. This was of particular interest to me, because I like many other Americans have never been asked nor know of anyone that has been asked a political question used in political polling. In short, the site explains what the numbers actually mean. The site uses a fictional mayoral election to explain the numbers. Also, it discusses margin of error and how it affects the polls. Next, the site goes on to clarify confidence. Finally, elucidation on what can go wrong in the polling process is discussed. In the fictional case Republican Stephanie Higgins was running against two-term incumbent, Democrat Webster Fletcher. Once Higgins formally announced she was running for mayor, the polls showed that Fletcher would win with 56% of the vote. However, six months before the election the mayoral race was tightening up. The polls showed that Fletcher continued to have a slight lead of 3%, with a margin of error of +/- 5%. The site raised the question of whether or not Fletcher actually had a lead if the margin of error is +/- 5%. Three months before the election Higgins took a 15% lead in the polls with same margin of error. Oddly enough, the day before the election some polls showed Higgins winning by a landslide. As expected it was a close election. The lead changed hands several times. However, Higgins pulled ahead and won the election in its last moments. To begin the site discusses the importance of the random sampling used in political polling. In class we defined a random sample as, everything in the sample stands the same chance of being selected at any point and any time. A great example was given on the site. If a doctor wants to figure out a patients white blood cell count, the doctor doesnt drain out all the patients blood and count the white blood cells. The doctor randomly samples the patients blo...